By Michael Phillips | VABayNews
When State Sen. Louise Lucas went on X (formerly Twitter) this month promising a “follow back” to anyone who posted “10–1,” it sounded like a joke only political insiders would get. A day later, House Speaker Don Scott told an audience at the UVA Center for Politics that a 10–1 Democratic congressional map is “not out of the realm” if lawmakers redraw Virginia’s districts.
On their own, those are just provocative lines from two powerful Democrats. But they’re happening against a very specific backdrop:
- In 2020, Virginians voted by almost two to one to take redistricting away from politicians and hand it to a bipartisan commission.
- In October 2025, the Democratic-controlled General Assembly approved the first step of a constitutional amendment (HJR 6007) that would let lawmakers reopen and redraw Virginia’s U.S. House districts mid-decade, ahead of the 2026 elections.
If that amendment survives a second vote in 2026 and a statewide referendum, the General Assembly — not the independent commission voters created — would get a temporary window to redraw congressional lines.
For Virginians who thought they had taken the map-drawing pen out of politicians’ hands, it raises a simple question: was 2020’s “fair maps” reform a permanent promise, or just a speed bump?
What HJR 6007 Actually Does
The current system is the product of Virginia Question 1 (2020), which amended the state constitution to:
- Create a 16-member redistricting commission (8 lawmakers, 8 citizens).
- Require that congressional and state legislative maps come from that commission, with the Virginia Supreme Court stepping in if the commission or General Assembly deadlocks.
That amendment passed with about 65.6% support statewide, winning a majority in nearly every county and independent city.
House Joint Resolution 6007, adopted in a 2024 special session, would not formally repeal the commission. Instead, it would add language to Article II, Section 6 that:
- Authorizes the General Assembly to “modify one or more congressional districts” between censuses
- When another state redraws its congressional map “for any purpose other than completion of the state’s decennial redistricting or as ordered by a court to remedy an unlawful or unconstitutional district map.”
- Limits that authority to a time window running through roughly 2030, after which the normal commission-based process would again be the only option.
Procedurally, here’s what must happen next:
- The newly elected General Assembly must pass the same amendment language again in 2026.
- The question then goes to voters in a statewide referendum, likely on the 2026 ballot.
- Only if voters approve would lawmakers gain the authority to redraw lines — presumably in time for the 2026 midterms.
The governor has no formal role in this constitutional process. Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger has signaled support for keeping the option available, but has not endorsed a specific map.
How Democrats Defend the Move
Democratic leaders say they are reacting to something very specific: aggressive Republican gerrymanders in other states, recently blessed by the U.S. Supreme Court.
- In Texas, North Carolina, Indiana, Ohio and others, GOP-controlled legislatures have adopted maps heavily tilted toward Republicans, often after mid-decade revisions.
- A recent Supreme Court ruling allowed Texas to use new legislative maps criticized by lower courts as extreme, signaling broad tolerance for partisan line-drawing.
House Speaker Don Scott and other sponsors frame HJR 6007 as a way to “level the playing field.” They argue:
- Virginia shouldn’t “unilaterally disarm” when Republicans are maximizing their advantage elsewhere.
- The 2021 map left Democrats with a narrow 6–5 edge, even though the state has voted Democratic in recent statewide races.
- A revised map could reasonably give Democrats two or three additional seats, making Virginia part of a broader national counter to GOP gerrymanders.
In other words, their official line is not “we want 10–1 at any cost” but “we should not be the only side playing by Marquess of Queensberry rules while the other side doesn’t.”
Supporters also stress that:
- Voters still get the final say via referendum.
- The amendment expires after this decade, so it’s framed as a one-time response to an unusually aggressive national cycle.
What Critics Say: “This Undercuts the 2020 Reform”
Republicans — and many good-government advocates — see something very different:
- A Backdoor Around Voter-Approved Reform
In 2020, voters were told that giving map power to a bipartisan commission would “largely strip the General Assembly of its authority to redraw” districts.
HJR 6007 restores that authority for a limited period, but in the one place it matters most: congressional lines in a closely divided U.S. House. Republicans argue that’s a direct contradiction of what voters thought they were enacting. - A Partisan Trigger in All But Name
The amendment’s trigger — other states redrawing “for any purpose other than decennial redistricting or court order” — is functionally about partisan advantage, even if the word “partisan” is avoided. Once one state moves, Virginia’s politicians can act. - Legal Risk: State Constitution and Voting Rights Act
- Opponents have already filed a state constitutional challenge to the special session and amendment process, though initial emergency motions were denied.
- A heavily tilted map could face federal Voting Rights Act lawsuits, especially if minority communities are cracked or packed in ways that resemble past Virginia racial gerrymanders struck down by the courts.
- Voter Backlash in 2026
Polling around the 2020 amendment showed broad, bipartisan support for taking politicians out of redistricting; even many Democrats opposed party leaders then to back reform.
Asking those same voters in 2026 to give lawmakers a mid-decade override power may prove a tough sell — especially if the debate is framed as “politicians versus the independent commission you just created.”
From a center-right standpoint, the core critique is not that Democrats lack a grievance with GOP maps elsewhere; it’s that they are choosing the very remedy — partisan self-drawing — that Virginia’s own electorate just rejected.
The Maps Being Floated: 9–2, 10–1, and a Roanoke–Charlottesville Corridor
It’s important to be precise here: no official Democratic map has been introduced. Legislative leaders talk about gaining “two or three” more seats, not a specific 10–1 target.
However, outside the Capitol, activists and online map-drawers have shown just how far the lines could be pushed:
- Cardinal News recently highlighted several unofficial maps — including one from Rep. Morgan Griffith’s office and others shared by former Del. Tim Anderson — that produce a 10 Democrat / 1 Republican split by:
- Packing almost every Republican-leaning area into a single Southwest district.
- Linking Roanoke, Charlottesville, Virginia Tech, Radford, and other college towns into a long “blue corridor.”
- Submerging large parts of the Shenandoah Valley and other rural regions into Northern Virginia–anchored districts.
- Progressive commentators have also discussed 9–2 concepts as a more “defensible” target, with one safer Republican seat added somewhere outside the 9th.
The Roanoke Valley is a key pivot point:
- Under the current 2021 map, Roanoke’s strongly Democratic vote is diluted inside Republican-leaning districts like the 6th and 9th.
- Under activist 9–2 or 10–1 drafts, Roanoke becomes part of a stitched-together “college town” district where its vote helps guarantee a Democratic majority stretching across multiple regions.
Critics see this as evidence that, whatever official line Democrats are using, the upper bound of what’s possible — and what some activists want — is a map with only one realistic Republican seat.
Who Would Feel the Impact
Even if the final result is something like 8–3 or 9–2 rather than a hard 10–1, the techniques involved raise real representation questions for several groups:
Rural Communities
Under the more aggressive drafts, rural voters in regions like the Shenandoah Valley, Southside, and parts of Southwest get sliced and attached to urban/suburban districts where their numerical influence is limited.
Those voters still have a member of Congress, but their ability to elect someone who reflects their region’s priorities — agriculture, natural resources, small-town economies — diminishes significantly when they’re rolled into Northern Virginia or Hampton Roads–anchored seats.
Competitive General Elections
Maps that tilt heavily toward one party tend to replace competitive general elections with one-party primaries as the decisive contest.
- In safe Democratic seats, candidates answer mostly to the left flank of their party.
- In the lone safe Republican seat, the incentive runs in the other direction.
For moderates and independents — who often decide statewide races — that means fewer chances to choose between two serious candidates in November and more policy being set by intra-party fights in June.
Minority Voters
Democrats emphasize that a revised map could strengthen Black-plurality districts in places like Hampton Roads and Central Virginia. That is plausible and, if drawn carefully, could improve compliance with the Voting Rights Act.
At the same time, federal courts have already warned Virginia about using race too bluntly in past redistricting cycles. If maximizing partisan gain leads to cracking or overconcentrating minority communities — especially in mixed rural-urban areas — the state could find itself right back in litigation.
Political Risk: A Short-Term Gain That Nets Out to Zero?
From a purely tactical angle, Democrats see an opportunity: with a slim Republican majority in the U.S. House, flipping two or three Virginia seats could be decisive.
But there are at least three reasons the gamble may not pay off:
- National “Net Wash”
Analysts like Nate Silver and others have suggested that the emerging redistricting arms race — blue states pushing left, red states pushing right — could end up roughly cancelling out nationally. Gains in Virginia, California, or Illinois may be offset by more aggressive maps in places like Texas, Indiana, or the Midwest. - Backlash Fuel for Republicans
Republicans are already using HJR 6007 to rally donors and voters, arguing that Democrats are trying to “rewrite the rules” after losing the House nationally. GOP leaders like Gov. Glenn Youngkin have labeled the plan “nuts” and a “desperate political ploy.” Displaced or endangered Republican incumbents in places like the 1st, 5th, 6th, or 7th Districts could reinvent themselves as statewide candidates, running against what they will brand as a broken promise on fair maps. - Referendum Failure
The biggest risk is simple: if voters are reminded that they just approved an independent commission by a 2–1 margin in 2020, they may balk at giving politicians a special override, no matter which party is in charge. In that scenario, Democrats would have spent years defending a controversial amendment, energized their opposition, and still be stuck with the current 6–5 map in 2026.
The Question Coming in 2026
Reasonable people can disagree about how aggressively Virginia should respond to gerrymanders in other states. Many center-right voters look at Texas or North Carolina and see maps they don’t like either.
But Virginians also did something unusual in 2020: they took a concrete step away from legislature-drawn maps and toward a bipartisan process. That reform wasn’t imposed by courts or Congress; it was passed at the ballot box.
If HJR 6007 reaches the ballot, the question facing voters will be straightforward:
Five years after you voted to take redistricting power away from politicians, do you want to give them a temporary exception to redraw Virginia’s congressional map in the middle of the decade?
Democrats will argue it’s necessary to counter what Republicans have done elsewhere. Republicans will argue it undermines the “fair maps” promise Virginians themselves just made.
For moderates and independents who supported reform in 2020, that may be the most important choice on the 2026 ballot — no matter what the final map lines look like.
Virginia Bay News 
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