By Michael Phillips | Virginia Bay News
Two January special elections for the Virginia House of Delegates are shaping up to be more political formality than competitive contest—highlighting a growing structural problem for Republicans in Northern Virginia and adjacent suburban districts.
According to reporting from WJLA (ABC7), the January 13, 2026 special elections in House Districts 11 and 23 were triggered by cabinet appointments made by Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger. Both vacancies were created when sitting Democratic delegates resigned to join her incoming administration. And in both cases, the underlying political reality is the same: Republicans are running, but they are not realistically competing.
Why These Seats Are Effectively Off the Board
House District 11 (Fairfax City and parts of Fairfax County) and House District 23 (parts of Prince William and Stafford counties) are not swing districts. They are deeply Democratic strongholds that have only grown bluer over the past decade.
Recent election results tell the story clearly:
- Democratic candidates routinely win these districts with margins approaching—or exceeding—two-to-one.
- Republican nominees in November 2025 lost decisively, and the same GOP candidates are now attempting rematches under even less favorable conditions.
- Special elections historically draw lower turnout, which tends to benefit the dominant party’s base. In Northern Virginia, that base is overwhelmingly Democratic.
In short, these are not races where messaging tweaks or late momentum can realistically overcome the partisan math.
The Candidates, The Reality
In District 11, Democrats nominated Gretchen Bulova, a longtime civic figure and the wife of the outgoing delegate. Republicans are running Adam Wise, who already lost to the same political network in November. The district’s voting history suggests the outcome is all but predetermined.
In District 23, Democrats selected Margaret Franklin, a well-established Prince William County supervisor with strong institutional backing. Republicans nominated Verndell Robinson, a Navy veteran and local businesswoman, but the district’s partisan lean heavily favors Democrats regardless of individual résumés.
These contests are less about persuasion than succession.
A Broader GOP Problem in Northern Virginia
From a center-right perspective, these special elections underscore a strategic dilemma for Virginia Republicans:
- Northern Virginia’s population growth has been driven by federal workers, contractors, and urban-style suburban voters who increasingly align with Democrats.
- Republican infrastructure in these districts has eroded, leaving candidates with limited resources, compressed timelines, and little chance to expand the electorate.
- Democrats, meanwhile, treat these seats as safe enough to move incumbents into cabinet roles without fear of losing legislative ground.
Even national or statewide shifts would not meaningfully alter the outcome in districts this lopsided.
Why Democrats Are Comfortable Calling These Elections
Governor-elect Spanberger’s team did not accidentally create these vacancies. Appointing delegates from safe districts allows Democrats to refresh their bench without risking their House majority. With Democrats already expanding their control of the General Assembly in 2025, these special elections function as maintenance—not competition.
Winners will be sworn in on January 14, the same day the General Assembly convenes, ensuring no interruption to Democratic control.
The Bottom Line
Republicans are right to contest every race. Party-building matters. But honesty matters too.
These January special elections are not bellwethers, battlegrounds, or warning signs for Democrats. They are reminders of how thoroughly Democrats now dominate large swaths of Northern Virginia—and how steep the climb has become for Republicans hoping to reverse that trend.
Until Republicans rebuild credibility, organization, and voter appeal in these regions, special elections like these will continue to look less like contests—and more like formalities.
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